The U.S. presidential election will take place on November 5.
As former President Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party engage in a close race until the end, interest is growing in how U.S. space policy might change depending on the election outcome.
Here is a summary of the major foreign media coverage on the subject.
▶ “Artemis, Mars Exploration, and LEO Leadership as Common Denominators”
Regardless of which candidate wins, it is expected that policies such as NASA’s Artemis lunar exploration program, Mars exploration, and maintaining U.S. leadership in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will continue. These points are explicitly stated in both the Republican platform, released on July 8, and the Democratic platform, released on August 19.
▶ “Regulations that Stymie SpaceX Could Be Eased”
The BBC predicts that if Trump wins, he will likely show considerable favor toward Elon Musk, who has donated large sums to his campaign. This could lead to a sweeping elimination of various regulations that have hindered the growth of Musk-owned companies such as SpaceX and Tesla. Professor Gordon of the University of Michigan commented, “Musk views himself as being hampered by regulatory authorities,” adding that “he feels government intervention is obstructing the technological development he is focused on, such as autonomous driving.” As a result, Gordon forecasts that if Trump wins, Musk could exert significant influence on the administration to weaken regulations that negatively impact his business.
▶ “Increased Subsidies for Starlink-Government Contracts”
The Washington Post (WP) expects that if Trump is elected, the U.S. government’s use of Starlink and subsidy payments could increase. During the campaign, Trump pledged to expand support for space systems related to national security. The WP also reported that Republican lawmakers are urging that Starlink receive a $42 billion federal internet subsidy. Furthermore, SpaceX may gain an advantageous position over competitors like Amazon when bidding on national security missions. Citing an anonymous former SpaceX executive, WP stated, “SpaceX wants to launch as many Starlink satellites as quickly as possible,” and suggested that if Trump is elected, he could approve the construction of new launch facilities for Starlink.
▶ “Expansion of Space Companies’ Roles and Deregulation”
Svetla Ben-Itzhak, an assistant professor of Space and International Relations at Johns Hopkins University, predicts that the role of private space companies in U.S. space missions could expand if Trump wins. Trump's Space Policy Directive 1, signed in 2017, calls for enhanced collaboration between the U.S. government and private/international partners. Professor Ben-Itzhak also expects further regulatory relief, as Space Policy Directive 2, signed by Trump in 2018, includes measures to simplify regulations to promote rapid growth and innovation in the private space industry. She noted that Trump’s past space policy focused on national security and strategic competition with China, and if re-elected, he is likely to maintain this approach. Increased budgets for NASA and the Space Force are anticipated to support these goals.
▶ “Pushing for Infrastructure Development in Low Earth Orbit”
In July, the Republican Party unveiled the 2024 Republican Party Platform, outlining the core policies for “Trump’s second term.” Although brief, the platform’s space-related content presents a clear direction: “Under Republican leadership, the United States will foster a strong manufacturing industry in Low Earth Orbit, send U.S. astronauts to the Moon and Mars, and strengthen partnerships with the rapidly growing private space sector.” The platform also specifies that this will “revolutionize our ability to access, inhabit, and develop assets in space.”
▶ Trump: “If Elected, I Will Establish a ‘Space National Guard’”
If Trump wins, it is likely he will establish a “Space National Guard,” a space force led and commanded by state governments. Trump created the Space Force in 2019 during his presidency and aims to further enhance U.S. space security by establishing the Space National Guard. In an August 26 speech, Trump said, “The Space Force is operating well now,” and expressed agreement that “the time has come to create the Space National Guard as a key reserve combat force for the U.S. Space Force.” He emphasized, “If I become president again, I will sign a historic bill to establish the Space National Guard,” adding, “The Space Force is very, very, very important.” However, due to differing opinions between the Department of Defense, state governments, and lawmakers, the passage of this bill is uncertain.
▶ Trump: “If Elected, I Will Revive the Space-Based Missile Defense Program”
In a speech in February, Trump announced that if he wins, he would revive the “space-based missile defense program” envisioned during the Reagan administration. During a rally in Laconia, New Hampshire, Trump promised to build a “cutting-edge missile defense system” that would cover the entire U.S., calling it America’s “Iron Dome.” He emphasized that although the technology was insufficient during Ronald Reagan’s administration, it has since advanced significantly. According to local media, the missile defense program mentioned by Trump is the Strategic Defense Initiative, developed in 1984 during the height of the Cold War, which was nicknamed “Star Wars” after a popular movie at the time. This system concept involved deploying powerful laser weapons in space to intercept and destroy Soviet nuclear ballistic missiles once they entered outer space.
▶ A Summary of the U.S. Space Policy Directives (SPD) 1-7 Signed by Trump
▶ “ISS and Artemis Program to be Maintained”
The Democratic platform that Harris belongs to briefly mentions space: “We will continue to support NASA and the U.S. presence on the International Space Station (ISS), and strive to send Americans to the Moon and Mars.” If Harris is elected, it is expected that the U.S. government’s support for the ISS and the Artemis lunar exploration mission will continue.
▶ “Promotion of ‘Cislunar’ Development”
The Planetary Society assessed that Harris, as Vice President, has supported NASA and continually advanced U.S. space policy. Specifically, as Chair of the National Space Council, she promoted policies to address climate change using space technologies, fostered a diverse and inclusive space workforce, and expanded opportunities for small businesses. The Planetary Society commended her for supporting the Artemis program and especially for establishing the “National Cislunar Science & Technology Strategy.” This strategy sets “scientific discovery” as a primary goal for lunar and cislunar space exploration and encourages collaboration among national and institutional partners to develop deep space exploration technology.
▶ “Strengthening Space Diplomacy”
Strengthening space diplomacy has been a key policy under the Biden administration, and The Planetary Society’s analysis indicates that Harris would likely maintain this policy approach if elected. As Chair of the National Space Council, Harris worked to expand the number of signatories to the Artemis Accords and aimed to fulfill the Biden administration’s goal of a “responsible and sustainable use of space” by leveraging these diplomatic relationships. Harris also led a global campaign to halt “anti-satellite missile tests” (ASAT).
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[Analysis] U.S. Presidential Election and Prospects for Space Policy
The U.S. presidential election will take place on November 5.As former President Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Vice President Kamala Harris from t
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